Germany is a country that exported a large amount of pork to China, and exports were immediately stopped when there was noticed a disease outbreak in the country. For our growers, this means falling prices because of the large surplus of meat.
Petras Čepkauskas, an analyst at Pricer.lt, says that this shift of the disease towards Western Europe will be felt by our consumers as well.
“As soon as it was announced that the first infected boar had been detected in Germany, the stock exchange price fell by 20 ct per kilogram on the same day. That’s a lot, because instead of € 1.47, now you pay € 1.27. The situation in Lithuania is the same. We are waiting for what will happen next, ”says Algis Baravykas, director of the Lithuanian Pig Breeders’ Association.
The head of the association says that China was the largest importer of pork from Germany – it exported about 600 thousand tons of meat. This is ten times more than the whole Lithuania produces and all this quantity may have to be eaten within Europe. It is likely that quite a lot of meat will be brought to us as well, which will make companies feel the pressure.
“It would be good if Germans were able to reach an agreement with China and allow them to export to this country, because when the disease was found, trade with China was suspended and prices in Europe fell,” explains Egidijus Mackevičius, director of the Lithuanian Meat Processors Association.
He hopes this decline will not last long. Shipments to China will start in countries where African swine fever is not present, such as France, who would export their meat and use meat from Germany instead of the exported ones. If this does not happen, the outlook is sad: there is a surplus of meat in Europe and growers and processors are just waiting for all supply chains to change.